Discernment and calibration — how well can you spot lies?
Can you really spot a lie? Most people are sure they can, yet they're systematically wrong. Fake or Fate turns that question into a measurable calibration test: how closely your predictions match reality.
The Brier Score: how calibrated you are
Every time you vote you declare a confidence — Maybe, Likely or Certain. The Brier Score compares the confidence you declare with how often you're actually right. Being certain and wrong costs you; being cautious and right is worth less than being certain and right.
After 20 votes with confidence you get your calibration index: one of the most ecological tests available, because it comes from real decisions under real uncertainty, not lab scenarios.
The H-Score: how convincing you are
On the posting side, the H-Score (HumanConvincingness) measures how convincing you were on a single statement: it accounts for the share of voters fooled and the confidence they voted with. Fooling someone who was Certain is worth more than fooling someone who said Maybe.
Your profile's average H-Score becomes public after a minimum number of reveals and votes: it's your calling card as a master of deception.
The leaderboards: Persuasiveness and Discernment
Two global leaderboards capture the game's two souls. The Persuasiveness leaderboard rewards the most convincing; the Discernment leaderboard rewards the most precise voters. You can excel at one, the other, or both.
Seasons periodically reset the race: each cycle is a fresh chance to climb and prove it wasn't just luck.